Trade Deadline Matchmaker: Which Teams Need Something New?

Matthew Roberson | @mroberson22

The NBA trade deadline is Thursday, February 8 at 3 P.M. eastern time. I’m going to keep this intro short out of fear that someone will get traded literally as I’m writing this. Here are some teams and the style of player they should target.

Timberwolves: bench scorer

Possible fits: Tyreke Evans, Joe Harris, Wesley Matthews, Rodney Hood, Joe Johnson

The way they’re constructed right now, the Timberwolves stand as the most likely first-round upset candidate. Minnesota reeks of a Fuck Brooklyn-era Raptors team, one that galvanizes its starved fanbase with a triumphant return to the postseason only to break their hearts. The Western Conference playoffs will be like Dunkirk, with Minnesota surrounded on one side by decorated outfits in Golden State, Houston, and San Antonio, while the bloodthirsty infantries in Oklahoma City, Denver, and Portland encroach from the other side. It’s a true sink or swim situation for the Wolves, who need to make a Tom Hardy or Harry Styles-sized addition to their cast of characters.

Of the Timberwolves’ top ten guys in minutes played, four of them (Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Jeff Teague, Jamal Crawford) have combined to play 234 playoff games. The other six (Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Tyus Jones, Gorgui Deng, Nemanja Bjelica, Shabazz Muhammad) have played in exactly zero. Knowing Tom Thibodeau and his affinity for by-the-book, methodical tactics, it stands to reason that Minnesota would look to acquire some playoff experience before the deadline.

The problems that Minnesota would likely run into come playoff time revolve around its uninspiring bench. The starting five has actually been among the best in the league, sporting a +8.6 net rating in over 900 minutes together. Replace Teague with Tyus Jones and the T-Wolves are a staggering 25.8 points better than their opponents per 100 possessions, albeit in a much smaller amount of minutes. The issues arise when the pack leaders take the bench, leaving the less experienced Wolves to hunt on their own. With Butler on the court, the Timberwolves outscore teams by 8.4 points per 100 possessions. When he’s off the court, teams outscore the Timberwolves by 7.3 points per 100 possessions. In other words, Minnesota is roughly 15 points better when Jimmy Butler is playing.

Obviously, any team will be worse when its best player is sitting. But the playoffs are notoriously grueling, and asking a player like Butler to give you 40 minutes every night against top-flight competition is a tall order. Thibodeau needs the comfort of knowing that he can rest Butler for extended periods without his team turning to ashes. While Jamal Crawford has made an entire career out of dropping 25 points on other teams’ bench dudes, one of the stains on his career is lackluster playoff numbers. In 69 career playoff games, a nice total for sample size purposes, Crawford has shot 38.3 percent from the field and 30.2 percent from beyond the arc. Adding another trusted scorer to Minnesota’s reserve squad could be the difference between a first-round exit and a trip to the conference semis.

Photo courtesy of @MrMak1/Twitter

While it may seem alarmist for a playoff team to give something up to acquire a non-starter in their walk year, Minnesota is a famished franchise that hasn’t tasted glory since the Garnett years. Tyreke Evans is a free agent this summer, but he’s not the same kind of three-point threat as some other eligible bachelors. Joe Harris in Brooklyn and Wesley Matthews in Dallas fit the bill for mid-tier scorers on expiring contracts, and both seem like the kind of player Thibodeau loves the most. Rodney Hood, whose name has been floated in trade rumors already, would be a fascinating experiment. He’s one injury away from looking like Ace in Paid in Full, but Hood would be under club control for next season as well and is currently making just $3.4 million in base salary. Minnesota could do worse than a guy who’s averaged 14 a game over the last three seasons in Utah.

Any way you slice it, the Wolves need to punch up their bench. A matchup with OKC in the first round is extremely likely, and I’ll take Westbrook-George-Anthony over Butler-Towns-Wiggins in a playoff rumble. A series like that could very well be decided by the secondary and tertiary players. With all due respect to Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad, the best possible timeline for the Timberwolves probably involves them not playing a whole lot in the playoffs.

Sixers: three-point shooter

Possible fits: Marco Belinelli, Troy Daniels, Austin Rivers, dare I say Vince Carter?

Philadelphia is in a position to make basketball fans’ dreams come true. Playoff Joel Embiid would be a spectacle worthy of a national holiday. Making people go to work on the same day Embiid could drop 25-12 and an Instagram picture on Al Horford is downright irresponsible. The home playoff games in Philly would have the energy of a bar fight mixed with an amusement park mixed with a military reunion. Sixer fans have endured years of angst and trauma while their loved ones have been exiled to a terrifying situation. The excitement, drunkenness, and volatility of a Sixers-Celtics first round game at Wells Fargo Center is already making my heart race.

When Philly goes with its bench units, the best the Sixers can do is roll out a lineup of capable, but not exactly reliable three-point marksmen. Starters Robert Covington and JJ Redick both hit 38 percent or better on at least six attempts per game, and Dario Saric has improved from a 31 percent three-point shooter as a rookie to 37.4 percent this season. But among the team’s most-used guards and wing players off the bench (Jerryd Bayless, T.J. McConnell, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Justin Anderson), none carry a reputation as a knockdown shooter. After compiling a 34.7 three-point percentage over his first seven years in the league, Bayless has buried 40.3 percent since the start of 2015-16. His 37.2 percent clip on 3.8 attempts per game this year is encouraging. But come playoff time, should the 76ers survive to see it, Bayless’ defense will likely keep him on a short leash, especially with the length advantages that Ben Simmons, Covington, Luwawu-Cabarrot, and even Anderson have over him.

Human mosquito bite T.J. McConnell has connected on a staggering 47.6 percent of his outside shots in 2017-18, but that has come on just 42 attempts, less than one per game. Luwawu-Cabarrot and Anderson both sit below 34 percent. If the 76ers do wind up in their first playoff series since 2012, they’re likely to be paired against the Celtics or Raptors, two of the top-six teams in three pointers taken per game. In order to keep pace, it would behoove Philadelphia to add a floor-spacing, catch-and-shoot specialist.

Marco Belinelli and Troy Daniels check all the boxes on the good shooter, bad team application. Belinelli has essentially been a paycheck collector since leaving San Antonio in 2015, the last time he suited up for a playoff team. Injecting him into their rotation would be a shot in the arm for both the Sixers and Belinelli’s career. The eleventh-year pro out of Italy is a 37.2 percent three-point maker this year and has two full seasons above 41 percent to his name. His expiring contract, 42.3 percent career success rate on corner threes, and 44.1 percentage in his last two playoff runs stamp TRADE FOR ME on Belinelli’s forehead. 

I’ll forgive you if the name Troy Daniels fails to ring any bells. He went undrafted out of VCU in 2013 and worked in the D-League before getting his NBA cup of coffee. Respect was put on Daniels’ name thanks to a truly out-of-nowhere breakout in the 2014 playoffs. After playing just five games and 75 minutes in the entire regular season, Daniels turned in one of the greatest postseason folk hero performances of all-time in his Rockets’ loss to Portland. In Games 3 and 4 of that series, Daniels went off on an 8-for-13 (63.6 percent) three-point barrage and averaged 13 points in 20 minutes per game. Philly could not only use that playoff magic, they could also receive a major regular-season boost by acquiring Daniels (nailing 41.3 percent of his threes, ninth-best in the league among guys chucking five times per game). Getting Daniels out of Phoenix is also just an incredibly nice gesture akin to taking in a rescue dog.

We can make fun of Austin Rivers all day – and I plan on it – but the numbers don’t lie. Doc’s son is enjoying a career year from beyond the arc, and has a contract that would burn nicely if the Clippers go full fire sale. Though he’s missed the Clips’ last 17 games with an Achilles injury, Rivers is reported to be making a highly-coincidental return to action on Friday against the Pistons. Assuming he can stay healthy for the remainder of 2018, Rivers could be a nice buy-low solution for the shooting-starved Sixers.  

Blazers: stretch four

Possible fits: Ersan Ilyasova, Aaron Gordon, Marvin Williams, Channing Frye

Before the season, I wrote that the Blazers looked primed to be stuck in mediocrity for the foreseeable future. That still looks to be the case, as Portland has been trapped in a prison of their own design, existing in the six-to-eight seed range for most of the season. In order to lock up a sixth-seed or better and avoid getting dump trucked by the Warriors or Rockets in the first round, the Blazers need to make a move. Portland has already used 11 different starting lineups this season, plugging in everyone from Al-Farouq Aminu to Noah Vonleh to Caleb Swanigan at power forward. Finding a new person to man that position, either as a rock-solid starter or 18 to 24-minute bench option, should be of paramount importance to the Trail Blazers.

Luckily for Oregonians, the trade market supplies some interesting selections. Depending on how the front office views rookie Zach Collins – a nominal power forward who can play center in a pinch – Portland can add a rental for the stretch run or a longer term big guy to keep the spot warm for Collins. Ersan Ilyasova is plugging away for the abysmal Atlanta Hawks, draining 48 percent of his corner threes and looking for someone to throw him a life ring. Ilyasova is a 30-year-old in the final year of his deal, meaning the Blazers would use his services for just the remainder of this campaign.

The Turkish vet is the definition of a streaky shooter, with two plus-44 percent three-point years early in his career sandwiched between two seasons in the high-20s. He’s been ok (35.7 percent) shooting from downtown over the last two years playing for OKC, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. Strangely, when everyone playing his position is gravitating outward, Ilyasova is enjoying his best year as a two-point shooter. Playing in Mike Budenholzer’s offense has gotten Ilyasova a ton of shots at the rim. 31 percent of his shot attempts have come within 0-3 feet of the hoop, according to Basketball-Reference. If his trey ball continues to miss after a hypothetical trade to Cascadia, look for Terry Stotts to use his creative offensive mind to get Ilyasova a similar amount of bunnies.

Photo courtesy of Complex Sports/Twitter

Gordon and Williams are dangling as possible acquisitions that would stick around for the future. Despite being known primarily as a dunker, Gordon’s all-around game has blossomed in his fourth season as a Magic man. The former top-five pick is canning 34.6 percent of his threes and 38.6 percent from the corners. Those numbers aren’t great, but they’re promising jumps from his career numbers of 30.8 and 31.8, respectively. Like Ilyasova, Gordon is a free agent this summer, but the restricted version. This means that other teams can offer Gordon a deal, but the Magic will have the chance to match. Rather than risking Orlando clutching to its precious 22-year-old and matching its offer, Portland could swoop in early, then re-negotiate in the offseason without having to worry about the Magic playing keep-away. Of course, trading for Gordon would require Portland parting with something nice. He is exactly the type of player that Portland could use, a hyper-athletic version of the power forwards they have now, and at 18 points and eight rebounds per game, a better stat-sheet stuffer than any forward currently in Rip City.

Williams has enjoyed a career renaissance since joining the Hornets’ hive in 2014. Portland would have him controlled for two more seasons if they brought Williams in via trade. At 43.4 percent, Williams is a deadlier three point shooter than Aminu, whose 39.4 percent rate this season has an outlier stench to it. Williams is a Northwest native playing for a team destined for the lottery. He’d be a welcome addition in Portland, and the trade machine likes a Williams for Mo Harkless and Jake Layman deal. That transaction would allow Charlotte to trim salary and get younger, while Portland could clear the logjam it has in its frontcourt. It’s not a sexy move, and it won’t push Portland into the Conference Finals or anything, but it does provide lineup stability and improved shooting for a team aching to get back to 50 wins during its backcourt duo’s collective prime. The ideal situation for Portland would be for Williams to pass the torch to Collins once his deal runs out after the 2019-20 season.

Every deadline conversation swirling around Portland starts and ends with DeAndre Jordan, but I just don’t see that happening without the Blazers unloading one of Lillard or McCollum. In my eyes, the best route for the Blazers to take starts with a stopgap at power forward. Build around the Lillard-McCollum-Nurkic triumvirate and hope that Collins can develop into the top-ten pick that they made him. In the meantime, if that means axing the much-younger Harkless for someone like Williams, or sending a courtesy second-round pick to enhance the bench with Channing Frye or Marreese Speights, so be it. The best-case scenario for the Trail Blazers this season is making the playoffs and pulling off a first-round upset. That ain’t happening against Golden State or Houston. Make a minor change, give San Antonio or Minnesota or OKC hell in the opening round, and re-assess the team afterwards.

Wizards: center

Possible fits: DeAndre Jordan, Brook Lopez, Dewayne Dedmon, Nerlens Noel

DeAndre Jordan is just sitting there like a middle schooler at a school dance, likely confused about his future and tired of being the subject of gossip. The Wizards’ song is playing, and they should be feeling confident after winning five of their last six games, it’s just a matter of what they’re willing to give up. The next few months could be a dream come true, a realization of feelings never felt, if they stroll across the gym and court DeAndre. It’s undoubtedly a nerve-wracking situation for both sides. One is the lone survivor of a friend group that was popular if not necessarily loved. Jordan’s old squad has moved on to pursue new endeavors, leaving him alone and in need of a willing-and-able partner.

Washington could and should be that partner, but it will mean sacrificing what they have: a young up-and-comer with attractive late bloomer potential. Kelly Oubre is the neighborhood kid who grew up with the Wizards and made his way into their hearts. Jordan is the more accomplished, popular romantic interest capable of bringing a level of clout they’ve never experienced before. Do you ditch your childhood sweetheart to invest in something new, or stick with what’s got you this far and hope the relationship cultivates something bigger and better?

‘Tis a classic dilemma reserved for teeny-bopper movies and NBA trade deadlines. An Oubre-for-Jordan swap seems to make sense for both sides, granted the Clippers are willing to take on a Marcin Gortat or Ian Mahinmi-sized contract to make the salaries match. Kicking supposed-Clipper for life Blake Griffin to the curb made Los Angeles the most interesting team of this deadline. How big are they willing to go on this rebuild, and what is their vision for the future? Oubre is 6’7” with a 7’0” wingspan, an archetype for the modern NBA wing. He’s 22 years old on a rookie deal that would pay him just $3.2 million next season, and has raised his three-point percentage by nearly 10 percentage points from last year to this year.

Los Angeles getting a younger and cheaper return for DeAndre Jordan almost makes too much sense. So long as they’re willing to part with Oubre (and probably a first round pick as well), the Wizards could make their flashiest addition since Michael Jordan. It maybe, finally, sorta kinda looks like a non-LeBron team could win the East for the first time since before bin Laden’s death. Washington has been shut out of the Conference Finals since before John Wayne’s death. All the pieces are there for D.C. to make a run at it and shine on a clouded city. John Wall – when he comes back from a knee problem – can be the peanut butter to Jordan’s pick-and-roll jams. Bradley Beal spotting up around that, launching threes or attacking closeouts, spells trouble for the Wiz’s contemporaries.

Not only would Jordan bring a third star into orbit, his massive presence in the post could remedy Washington’s porous rim protection. Wizards’ opponents make 66.4 percent of their contested shots at the rim, making Washington the sixth-worst defense in that category. Take into account that Washington is also below average at preventing points in the paint, and second-to-worst in stopping second chance points, and dancing with Jordan before this song ends seems like an even better idea.

Of course, the Wizards could still make improvements to their roster without mortgaging its future on Jordan. They could nab Dewayne Dedmon, he of the 11.8 rebounds per 36 minutes and expiring contract, for a price much smaller than Oubre. Dedmon’s 39.3 and 77.1 numbers from the three-point and free throw lines provide a page that Jordan’s book doesn’t have, too. Brook Lopez is somewhere in the middle, a better scorer than Dedmon but a worse defender and rebounder than Jordan. Surely Lopez would like a chance to prove himself in his contract year, given that the Lakers have nothing to play for and his minutes have decreased recently. A three-month “prove it” stint with the Wizards, who could unleash him against underqualified backups, could parlay into Lopez’s last big-time NBA contract.

Then, there is Nerlens Noel, the kid at the dance who everyone’s parents told them to stay away from, even if they can’t remember why. Noel has a busted thumb that’s kept him out since December, and even before that he was making more news for his in-game diet than his actual play. The Mavericks clearly felt some type of way about Noel turning down their four-year, $70-million offer this summer. But he’s a free agent in July, and there’s a better chance of Tony Romo returning to Dallas than Noel. Wouldn’t the Mavs take a second-round pick for him? It’s better than letting him walk for nothing, even if the second round pick they’d get from the Wizards has a very low possibility of turning into a useful NBA player. At this point, this is more about freeing Nerlens then it is about helping the Wizards, although a trade could theoretically do both.  

Thunder: perimeter defender

Possible fits: Avery Bradley, Tony Allen, Marcus Smart, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Photo courtesy of SLAM Magazine/Twitter

When my long-lost cousin Andre Roberson went down with a gruesome knee explosion, it created a defensive void in the Thunder’s depth chart. While Paul George is consistently one of the best defenders in the league, and Steven Adams patrols the paint with the body of a man who deadlifts Volvos, it was Roberson who often drew the assignment of checking opposing slashers. His unfortunate injury presents a weird addition-by-subtraction scenario in which the Thunder could improve their offense by replacing their most defensive-minded asset.

While finding a fill-in for Roberson's notoriously stingy defense should be the top priority, that shouldn't limit OKC into searching exclusively for bricklaying defensive experts. Avery Bradley has the pedigree and All-Defense honors to match Roberson, but is the filet mignon to Roberson's Arby's in terms of offense. Bradley's 15 points a night and ability to be a Steph Curry/James Harden shadow should have the Thunder placing some calls to his agent.

If Sam Presti and the Thunder execs want another defense-first, offense-if-you’re-lucky player to slide into Roberson’s role, they should be blowing up Tony Allen’s phone.

"Hey Tony, go make life hell for James harden for 8 minutes or so would ya?"
"Say less" *ashes blunt, forces Harden into 19 turnovers*

— Trill Withers (@TylerIAm) February 1, 2018

Allen’s inspiring combination of relentless defense, supreme confidence, and give-no-fucks attitude would be a welcome addition to Oklahoma City. Penciling Russell Westbrook, Allen, George, Carmelo Anthony, and Adams in a playoff starting five would give Billy Donovan a fearsome, fun, fire breathing force.

In the six games since Roberson’s patellar tendon went all Chernobyl, the Thunder have allowed an average of 111.3 points, including a 127-point parade by Denver on Feb. 1. More troubling than that, Oklahoma City has allowed opposing wings to get buckets at ease in Roberson’s absence. Ben Simmons, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry have all gone for at least 21 points on 42 percent or better field goal percentages since Roberson’s leg betrayed him. The Thunder risk compromising their fifth-ranked defensive rating if an adequate straight jacket can’t be placed on Western Conference scorers.

If the rumors about Marcus Smart being available are true, he could be used in a hockey-like fashion, wherein Donovan sends him out for shifts every time the opponents’ best scoring guard is on the floor. Resting him when the other team goes to its reserves, and playing him alongside Russell Westbrook, could allow both Smart and Westbrook to conserve their energy down the stretch of playoff games. Yes, Smart has the shooting abilities of a movie villain, same as Roberson, but his 10 points a night would still be a welcome upgrade over Roberson’s prehistoric offensive game. Assuming that his hand can heal from the most-R&B video injury in recent memory, Smart is just what the doctor ordered in Oklahoma.

The Thunder are in a bit of a precarious position. If they resided in the East, the current version of its roster could be enough to secure a first-round victory. With Roberson’s season ending before All-Star Weekend, the front office is almost forced into replacing him to have any chance of maintaining the team’s superb defense, even if OKC did put the clamps on Golden State on Tuesday night.

The thing is, the Thunder don’t have a lot of trade chips to play with. Their first-round pick in the upcoming draft was lost when they acquired Enes Kanter years ago, and in recent years the team has seen several of its traded players flourish after going elsewhere. Jerami Grant and a 2018 second-round pick might be the best OKC can offer. That package may not be enough to land them the help they not only want, but may desperately need.

Knicks: point guard

Possible fits: Dennis Schröder, Ricky Rubio, George Hill, Reggie Jackson

If Atlanta really wants to embrace the tank and New York wants an experienced point guard to run with Porzingis in the future, Schröder would look great in blue and orange. Same goes for the Jazz if they think that Donovan Mitchell’s accelerated progress makes Rubio expendable. George Hill is guaranteed $19 million in 2018-19 for some reason, but he’s better than Jarrett Jack and trading him would make Sacramento one of the favorites to get the No. 1 pick. It’s a win-win for both the Knicks and Kings, albeit an expensive one for the Knickerbockers.

The Knicks haven’t had an All-Star point guard since the Reagan administration. The Cavaliers need an upgrade from Jae Crowder and a resolution to their Mean Girls locker room. Raise your hand if you’ve been personally victimized by Isaiah Thomas’ defense. Kevin Love is a grotsky little byotch. The perfect trade for Cleveland would be an easygoing, weed-smoking, locker room peacekeeper and a young, athletic, defensively-inclined ballhandler to coax LeBron into staying. Because this is a post all about the trade deadline, and I haven’t given you one completely out of this world idea yet, I’ll leave you with this.

Photo courtesy of @SportBlogNYC/Twitter

MICHAEL BEASLEY AND FRANK NTILIKINA FOR ISIAH THOMAS…WHO SAYS NO?!?

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