Let's Talk About These Rookies

Matthew Roberson | @mroberson22

Photo courtesy of @zesty_celtics/Twitter

When evaluating first-year players in the NBA, it’s paramount to remember that no rookies are created equally. Some were on national radars since their ninth grade years, and endured endless recruiting tactics before inevitably choosing Kentucky or Duke. Others grew up in foreign lands and were thus immune to the AAU machine that dominates America’s youth basketball circuits. Some are already the focal points of professional offenses, while most are something like a third or fourth option. A handful are already receiving starters minutes; most are coming off the bench or hardly playing at all.

For whatever reason, the 2017 draft class produced a fascinating case study in rookies. Whether it’s prized one-and-done prospects from basketball hotbeds – like Jayson Tatum, Lonzo Ball, or De’Aaron Fox – overseas imports to American colleges (Ben Simmons, Lauri Markkanen, OG Anunoby), freak athletes from ACC schools who probably fell too far in the draft (Donovan Mitchell, Dennis Smith Jr., John Collins), or the increasingly-rare guy who stayed in school long enough to actually choose a major (Kyle Kuzma). NBA teams are both trusting young players more than ever before, and practicing great patience toward their heralded teenagers. The 76ers became somewhat of a meme for redshirting their injured rookies in recent years. Both sides of the coin make sense. Teams, especially bad ones, have nothing to lose by rolling out unproven rookies and seeing what they’ve got. At the same time, putting too much on a youngster’s plate can result in sensory overload. Give them the freedom to do things on their own, and the overwhelming nature of it all can cause a breakdown, like when a kid is left home alone for the first time and ends up getting sick by eating frosting for dinner.

This has sparked an interesting conflict that stands to have a resolution sooner rather than later. Should the NBA eliminate its rule forcing incoming players to be a year removed from high school? Allowing these athletes to jump from senior prom to Staples Center puts the freedom back in the hands of the players, who are, after all, the lifeblood of the league. Simmons has made it sort of a personal crusade to speak out against the NCAA and the NBA’s symbiotic relationship, which has been mutualistic for the two entities and borderline parasitic for several players. Michael Porter Jr., the freshman sensation at Missouri, played two minutes of college basketball before suffering a season-ending injury. He entered the season with the inside track on being chosen with the No. 1 overall pick this June, and playing for the NCAA only jeopardized those chances. Scenarios like this all but lay out the most convincing argument for letting high schoolers turn pro.

Being forced into a collegiate uniform runs the risk of injury, scandal, and attrition that could otherwise be avoided. After witnessing Simmons instantly grasp the nuances of NBA basketball, and the indifference he seemed to display at LSU, it’s easy to say he was qualified enough to enter the league without having to pretend like he cared about the college experience. Remember that Kyrie Irving played all of 11 games for Duke before injuring himself prior to conference play even beginning. The Cavaliers still selected him first overall, and his 18.5 points per game as a rookie now serves as a great talking point against the necessity of extended time in college. Devin Booker never started a game in college, ditto for Dion Waiters.

From 2000-2005, a total of 18 players aged 19 or younger were drafted after their freshman or sophomore years of college. The 2006 draft was the first after the NBA barred players from entering the league straight out of high school. Since then, 107 players 19 or younger have heard their name called on draft night despite never reaching upperclassmen status on campus. While this has prevented some players (Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis) from taking their more-than-ready skillset to the NBA and collecting paychecks a year earlier, it also helped players parlay one successful year of college ball into a first-round selection. Take former Kentucky shooting guard James Young. Playing with Julius Randle, Willie Cauley-Stein, and the Harrison twins, Young scored 14 a game and was named to the All-Tournament team in his lone year as a “student-athlete” in Lexington. That was enough for the Celtics to take him with the 17^th pick in 2014. He appeared in 89 games for Boston, where he never started or scored more than 13 points in a game. It’s hard to think that Young’s draft status would have ever been higher than it was after helping Kentucky reach the Final Four as a freshman, and he certainly wasn’t good enough to go from pep rallies and homecoming dances to guarding LeBron. Even though he’s out of the league now, Young still put ink on an NBA contract, which is a bigger financial move than most humans will ever make.

This year’s crop of rookies is fascinating because of the wildly different paths they forged in getting here. Tatum is thriving, exceeding the expectations that followed him from high school to Duke to opening night in the NBA. Simmons is the clear-cut Rookie of the Year, and he had astronomical expectations like Tatum. The questions and speculation from the injury year hung in the air like his Australian accent, and Simmons has all but erased them less than two months into his career. These two have weathered the storm of constant media dissection and Top 100 lists to become exactly what they were supposed to be. There is something incredibly fulfilling, and frankly beautiful, about the horse finally biting the carrot that’s been dangling in front of them for years.

Of course, there’s also something beautiful about watching people overcome slights – whether real or perceived – and stick it to the haters. Lauri Markkanen and Donovan Mitchell are probably the best examples of this from the 2017 draft class. The knock on Markkanen was never about his scoring. It’s easy to see why a seven-footer with shooting touch would have his skills translate to the next level. Questions about his toughness and willingness to do the dirty work clouded the pre-draft narratives about Markkanen. One blogger even said he was “allergic to rebounding”. The Bulls’ big Finnish boy is second among rookies in rebounds per game and first in defensive rebounding percentage. Chicago also sports a lower defensive rating when its Markksman is on the court, according to Basketball-Reference. There’s no getting around the fact that the 5-20 Bulls are trapped in a flaming pit of sadness with other teams constantly dumping gasoline on them. None of that can be blamed on Markkanen though, who should be joined this summer by a new tantalizing rookie to help spearhead the team’s rebuild.

Mitchell, who wasn’t skewered before the draft as much as Markkanen, was still subject to doubts about his potential as a franchise-changing asset. DraftExpress said “he’s a ways away from being able to run an NBA team, as his feel for the game could use some work […] Miscasting Mitchell as a lead guard and playing him as such early in his career could stunt his growth.”

This 41-piece would beg to differ. In this 41-point suplexing of the Pelicans earlier this month, Mitchell was fully in his bag. He showcased abilities to catch and shoot, sink threes off the dribble, drive at bigs in the paint, and artfully maneuver the pick-and-roll. Dude had 17 in the fourth quarter alone, and even added four assists because he’s a nice person. 41 represented the most points for a rookie in Jazz history, and the most points by a rookie since Blake Griffin in 2011. That a guy who fell to the No. 13 pick possesses the combination of skills, athleticism, and IQ to drop 41 points speaks to the depth of the 2017 rookie class, which looks poised to be among the best in league history. The talk of Mitchell being ways away from being able to run an NBA team have silenced. He leads the Jazz in points per game among players to appear in at least 20 games, and he’s a primary reason for Utah’s early playoff position. Yet, somehow, he’d probably finish in third place for Rookie of the Year if the vote took place today.

Simmons and Tatum are the show pigs in this year’s litter. The former is a triple-double waiting to happen who also is doing wonders to revive the hook shot and the Sixers’ organization. The latter currently leads the NBA, not just rookies, in three-point percentage. Media outlets and talking heads will cover them ad nauseum this season, and rightfully so. They’re both great.

The depth and diversity of the 2017 class means that there’s something for everyone. Simmons and Tatum whet the appetite of fans who want to see top picks contribute to fun teams right away. Markkanen and Mitchell put smiles on the faces of people who like seeing rookies freed from the offensive shackles that many coaches implement on inexperienced players. Dennis Smith Jr. is already elite at trying to dunk on people much taller than him, and De’Aaron Fox improved his three-point percentage dramatically – from 19.0 to 40.0 – after being inserted in the starting lineup on November 17. But as we know, offense is only one half of the game. While splashing threes and rattling rims gets the headlines, playing stout defense is an outstanding way for rookies to ingratiate themselves among coaches. Let me introduce you to OG Anunoby and Frank Ntilikina, a.k.a the Spellcheck Twins.

Photo courtesy of SportsNet/Twitter

The Spellcheck Twins are both contributing to their teams in ways that the box score cannot express. Playing for a cohesive Raptors team with a defensively-inclined coach has allowed Anunoby to flourish despite averaging just 6.8 points per game. Toronto has outscored its opponents by 12.9 points per 100 possessions when OG is playing. Since joining the starting lineup in mid-November, the 20-year-old has helped the Raptors go 9-2, twice notching a season-high 16 points. The first start of Anunoby’s career came in Houston, where he was matched up with James Harden. Showing little signs of rookie jitters, Anunoby blanketed Harden all night, as the bearded one shot 8-for-25 (32 percent) from the field and the Raptors coasted to victory. Anunoby finished with a 22 +/- in that game and has not looked back since. His tenacious defense and 42.9 percent clip on three pointers make Anunoby, who the Raptors poached with the No. 23 pick, one of the steals of the 2017 draft.

Ntilikina's selection in the draft generated more buzz, simply because the Knicks took him ahead of established college stars. New York is easing the young point guard into the league – he’s yet to start or play more than 26 minutes in a game. Frankie Smokes is firmly in the project category of rookies. He needs development and seasoning to reach the levels that fellow rookies Simmons, Tatum, and Mitchell have already achieved. But in today’s era of viral dunk videos and hoop mixtapes that are 75 percent crossovers and pull-up threes, it’s refreshing to see a young player take to defense. Knicks’ coach Jeff Hornacek has already said of his French pupil: “We have great confidence in him defensively,” and “It’s great that a young guy comes into this league with more defensive principles than the offensive principles […] He’s got long arms. When you have an understanding of the game I think you have an understanding of how the flow is going and where they’re looking […] He does a great job for us defensively.”

The shooting numbers still leave a lot to be desired (35.2 FG%, 27.5 3PT %, 39.5 eFG%), but there’s no reason to rush the French Prince. He’s played in 22 games, and recorded two or more steals in eight of them. He’s currently averaging less than 20 minutes a night, and his per-36 numbers suggest that he could get nearly 10 points and 2.5 steals per game with extended playing time. While fighting for a playoff spot with Jarrett Jack as the starting point guard is a bit dire, bringing Ntilikina along slowly makes the most sense for a Knicks squad that is two or three years away from making any serious noise. Enjoy the defensive prowess and energy for now, and wait for the offense to come along later. Knicks' fans should rejoice in the fact that their first-round pick has an advanced understanding of defense and the rest of his career to grasp offense, rather than the other way around.

Photo courtesy of @kranvitter/Twitter

Across the country in the NBA’s other massive media market, there’s an interesting dynamic brewing with the Lakers’ rookies. Lonzo Ball landed in the Lakers’ locker room with the weight of his family, the No. 2 overall pick, and the purple and gold’s sky-high expectations on him. He’s been fine. Eight points and seven assists per game isn’t setting the world on fire, but it certainly doesn’t mean he’s a bust. It’s just that his fellow rookie, taken 25 picks later, is filling up the stat sheet every night. Kyle Kuzma became a favorite among a notoriously pompous fanbase by netting 16 points a night on 49 percent shooting, and 36.5 percent from deep. He snuck into the media cycle without a big baller father or a stint at one of college basketball’s A-list institutions. Ball is the lead singer, but Kuzma is the lead guitarist with mystique. Summer league served as his festival circuit, where he showed thousands of people that he’s just as important to the future of the band as its frontman. The Lakers should be all in on raising Ball, Kuzma, and Brandon Ingram from childhood into adulthood. Who better to father their transition than soon-to-be free agent LeBron James, who, of course, is a devoted family man.

As to be expected, it hasn’t been rosy for all the new guys. Josh Jackson has faded into obscurity as a fringe starter shooting below 40 percent for the freezing cold Suns. The best Suns rookie has actually been a 27-year-old who played for six different European teams before finding his footing in the states. Jackson has the athleticism and tools to be in the league for a long time. Let’s not worry about him yet.

It’s natural to be entertaining worries about Markelle Fultz, who is in the witness protection program. Jonathan Isaac's best outing was 11 points in 21 minutes, and he's since suffered an ankle injury. Isaac hasn’t played since November 11, and the Magic don’t have an incentive to speed up his recovery, especially with the explosion of Most Improved Player candidate Aaron Gordon. The Blazers traded up to nab Zach Collins with the No. 10 overall pick, deeming him a better choice than Mitchell, Anunoby, and John Collins, among others. Portland’s pick has scored eight points, as in one less than nine and one more than seven.

Drafting 19 and 20-year-olds carries an inherent risk. A year like this, with so many providing instant returns on their team’s investment, is rare. There's even a group of second-round picks playing meaningful minutes, led by Jordan Bell, Dwayne Bacon, Dillon Brooks, and Frank Mason. It’s premature to say any of these guys are busts already, and it’s also unwise to start sketching Hall of Fame busts. But years in the future, we might be looking back on this rookie class the way we do with the ’96 or ’03 groups. In the here and now, the best thing to do is kick back and enjoy the fact that nine rookies are averaging ten or more points and one has real All-Star aspirations. The NBA’s youth movement was already showing no signs of slowing down, and 2017’s fresh faces might have cut the brakes. 

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